The Wrong MAP for Ukraine and Georgia

Quote: The theorist for the self-defeating approach in Ukraine is a former foreign minister under Yushchenko. His policy line – which is also a line of domestic political argument – has run as follows: Ukraine should stop trying to balance its relations with Russia and the West, as it did under Kuchma. Ukraine should orient itself to the West and join NATO, and Russia should respect this choice. None of this suggests that there has been any thinking about NATO itself; it's all about Ukraine and its identity. In truth, it's not quite even about that. It's about the identity politics of those Ukrainians who take this position in a domestic political fight against the Eastern Ukrainians, who think of Ukraine's identity in a different way and are never going to fall into line against Russia. It is evident that they would like to get some respect and a sense of total independence from Russia. That, it needs to be recognized, is their personal problem; it may be harsh to say it, but it is a set of wishes that is doomed to go unfulfilled. The Orange leadership can sometimes, barely, win elections against the Eastern Ukrainians, but it has shown that it cannot thereby lead the country into solid public support for joining NATO – just the opposite.
The proponents of this one-way line got their chance early in Yushchenko's presidency to try out their line in practice. What happened? The more Yushchenko pushed on the NATO issue, the more Eastern Ukrainians and Crimeans agitated against NATO, with mass demonstrations and a real consensus in their regions against joining NATO. His Eastern-based opponent Yanukovych regained some popularity instead of fading away, increased his voter share, and became prime minister. The East-West divide in Ukraine grew sharper. Western Ukrainians began to realize that forcing the NATO issue was ruinous for Ukraine. More and more Ukrainians turned against joining NATO – some polls reached 80 percent against. Current polls still show under 20 percent in favor of NATO.
Has anything been learned from the experience? Or are we expecting someone to put Eastern Ukrainians through a transmogrifier and all come out as Western Ukrainians?
What the join-NATO-against-Russia line has meant in practice for Ukraine is to create trouble with Russia at every step along the way without ever getting to the goal; actually, the harder it's tried, the farther Ukraine gets from the goal. It does maximum damage to Ukraine (and everyone else) for minimum benefit. It doesn't serve Ukraine's interests, nor the West's; it can only be explained in terms of acting out some personal psychological issues vis-à-vis Russia.

Full article: http://www.antiwar.com/orig/straus.php?articleid=12616

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